Will e-learning put me out of a job?

After last week's 'Why is e-learning so unpopular?', I turn today to another question I am frequently asked by l&d people: 'Will e-learning put me out of a job?' In fact, when I think about it, the question is only rarely asked, but is frequently considered. And you can understand why. In most occupations in which technology has had an important influence - and that means most of them - it has proved a highly disruptive influence. Technology introduces efficiencies and makes possible new and improved ways of working, and these will inevitably require shifts in the way jobs are organised and in the skills required of the job holders. It removes the need for some old jobs and introduces some new ones. If you're involved in making these changes happen, then this process could be seen as exciting more than threatening, but if these changes are imposed on you, then you are going to run scared. As they say, people don't resist change, they resist being changed.

Leaving aside the emotional issues, is there a rational case for resistance? Do learning technologies really threaten l&d jobs? While it's tempting (but rather patronising) to be reassuring, I' afraid I have to say 'yes'.

In some ways this has already occurred. In many organisations, up to 50% of all l&d jobs have in the past been administrative - booking people on courses, sending out joining instructions, adding up the scores on the happy sheets. If these tasks haven't been automated by LMSs and other online tools by now, you'd have to ask why.

But the situation with 'professional' l&d jobs is more complex. Learning technologies can and will dramatically change the nature of the service provided by l&d and the skills mix will be quite different. And here I have to define learning technologies very broadly to include not just self-paced e-learning but also virtual classrooms, electronic performance support, collaborative distance learning, mobile learning, games and simulations, as well as the many uses of social media. Classroom training will undoubtedly have a major role to play in the mix, but rather than being 90% or more of the offering, it may well be 40% or less. That's a problem if you have a team of classroom trainers who only really want to be classroom trainers.

Let's say you are a classroom trainer. So, what are your options? Well, if you're really, really good at this and are making a real difference, then you could just carry on; after all, no-one's saying we will abandon the classroom altogether. That does not mean ignoring technology completely, because there are many good ways of using computers in the classroom that don't involve endless PowerPoint bullet point slides, and virtual classrooms will allow you to extend your reach significantly. But even so the job stays very similar in nature.

On the other hand, you may be someone who really likes making things; you have the imagination, the attention to detail, the analytical ability and the communication skills to create the sort of digital learning content - web resources, videos, podcasts, tutorials, quizzes, slide shows - that really engage learners. If this sounds like you, then there will be no shortage of demand for your skills. If, however, you have no interest or aptitude for this type of work, I'd steer well clear, because no amount of training is going to make you into a content designer.

And there will be some demand for competent tutors, who can act as coaches, curators, assessors and moderators of online and blended programmes. This role draws upon many of the skills you may already have as a 'guide on the side', but will certainly not require you to be a 'sage on the stage'.

Of course, it may be you never set foot in a classroom - you may be a consultant who interacts with internal or external 'clients', investigates and interprets their needs and proposes solutions. This job would seem safe, and in many ways it is - but only to the extent that you are able to work with a greatly increased toolkit. If the extent of your responsibility has been to determine whether the client needs a one-day course or a two-day, who should run it and where (and I know this is an unfair simplification) then your job suddenly got a whole lot more difficult. If you can't make sensible choices from all the traditional and new media alternatives (often in the form of sophisticated blends, bringing together the formal, non-formal, on-demand and experiential) then you're not going to hack it. First you have to recognise the need to up-skill (which means getting out of the denial stage), then you have to want to do this (you could get another job, after all), and then you have to get on with it.

Although I've outlined plenty of options for a way forward, there will undoubtedly be casualties - indeed, there already have been plenty as employers have cut back significantly on spend. There will not be a return to the 'good old days', so now is the time to make a decision. Embrace technology or try and find a job that technology has yet to reach. That's if you can find one.